Model WarsJuly 6, 2026via The Decoder
GPT-4's dominance lasted a year while today's top models barely survive seven weeks at the top
Why it matters
The AI capability race is accelerating but also compressing—models are improving faster, but the performance deltas between them are shrinking, signaling market saturation and the end of clear technical dominance.
Key signals
- GPT-4 led Epoch Capabilities Index for ~12 months
- Claude 3 Opus took top spot February 2024
- 17 leadership changes since February 2024
- Median model dominance window: 7 weeks
- Capability gains between models are shrinking
- Data source: Epoch Capabilities Index
The hook
17 leadership changes in 18 months. GPT-4 owned the top spot for a year. Today's best models last seven weeks.
OpenAI's GPT-4 led the Epoch Capabilities Index for about a year, far longer than any model since. Since Claude 3 Opus took the top spot in February 2024, the lead has changed hands 17 times, with a median stay of just seven weeks. Competition is fiercer now, but the capability gains between models are shrinking.