FrontierThe story, in brief
GPT-4's dominance lasted a year while today's top models barely survive seven weeks at the top
17 leadership changes in 18 months. GPT-4 owned the top spot for a year. Today's best models last seven weeks.
The KeyNews take
Why it matters
The AI capability race is accelerating but also compressing—models are improving faster, but the performance deltas between them are shrinking, signaling market saturation and the end of clear technical dominance.
The key facts
6 to knowGPT-4 led Epoch Capabilities Index for ~12 months
Claude 3 Opus took top spot February 2024
17 leadership changes since February 2024
Median model dominance window: 7 weeks
Capability gains between models are shrinking
Data source: Epoch Capabilities Index
Go to the source
The Decoderthe-decoder.com
Publisher excerpt: OpenAI's GPT-4 led the Epoch Capabilities Index for about a year, far longer than any model since. Since Claude 3 Opus took the top spot in February 2024, the lead has changed hands 17 times, with a median stay of just seven weeks. Competition is fiercer now, but the capability gains between models…