Nearly one in five AI researchers already expected an extinction scenario from AI back in 2024
18%. That's the average extinction-risk estimate among 1,500+ leading AI researchers in 2024 — and the number keeps climbing.
Why it matters
AI safety and existential risk have moved from fringe concern to mainstream belief among frontier researchers. This shapes policy, funding priorities, and how practitioners approach AI governance and deployment decisions.
The key facts
10 to knowSurvey of 1,500+ leading AI researchers conducted in 2024
18% average estimated probability of extinction scenario from AI
Risk estimates are increasing over time
Researchers quoted: Jacob Coxon (Anthropic), Daniel Selsam (OpenAI), unnamed ex-DeepMind researcher
Published September 2026
Survey of 1,500+ leading AI researchers
18% average estimated probability of extinction scenario in 2024
Trend: the number is climbing
Named researchers: Jacob Coxon (Anthropic), Daniel Selsam (OpenAI), unnamed ex-DeepMind researcher
Survey appears to be from 2024; article published September 2026
Go to the source
The Decoderthe-decoder.com
Publisher excerpt: Anthropic researcher Jacob Coxon sparked an intense debate about existential AI risks with a single tweet. OpenAI researcher Daniel Selsam warns of a "ticking time bomb," and a former Deepmind researcher says AI could kill us all. In a survey of more than 1,500 leading AI researchers, the average…