WorkSeptember 16, 2026via The Decoder
Nearly one in five AI researchers already expected an extinction scenario from AI back in 2024
Why it matters
AI safety and existential risk have moved from fringe concern to mainstream belief among frontier researchers. This shapes policy, funding priorities, and how practitioners approach AI governance and deployment decisions.
Key signals
- Survey of 1,500+ leading AI researchers conducted in 2024
- 18% average estimated probability of extinction scenario from AI
- Risk estimates are increasing over time
- Researchers quoted: Jacob Coxon (Anthropic), Daniel Selsam (OpenAI), unnamed ex-DeepMind researcher
- Published September 2026
- Survey of 1,500+ leading AI researchers
- 18% average estimated probability of extinction scenario in 2024
- Trend: the number is climbing
- Named researchers: Jacob Coxon (Anthropic), Daniel Selsam (OpenAI), unnamed ex-DeepMind researcher
- Survey appears to be from 2024; article published September 2026
The hook
18%. That's the average extinction-risk estimate among 1,500+ leading AI researchers in 2024 — and the number keeps climbing.
Anthropic researcher Jacob Coxon sparked an intense debate about existential AI risks with a single tweet. OpenAI researcher Daniel Selsam warns of a "ticking time bomb," and a former Deepmind researcher says AI could kill us all. In a survey of more than 1,500 leading AI researchers, the average es…