WorkJuly 18, 2026via The Decoder
Open-weight models now match frontier cyber performance from just four months ago at a fraction of the cost
Why it matters
Open-source AI models are closing the offensive cyber capability gap with closed frontier models at an accelerating pace, while safety measures on open models remain ineffective. This creates a compressed timeline for defenders and raises urgent questions about responsible model release and security governance.
Key signals
- Open-weight models (GLM-5.2, DeepSeek V4-Pro) now trail closed frontier models by 4-7 months on cyber capabilities
- Gap narrowed from 6-10 months at start of 2025
- Safety measures on open models found to be largely ineffective
- British AI Security Institute source
- Implies accelerating capability convergence rate (~2-3 month gap reduction per quarter)
The hook
The cyber gap just collapsed. Open-weight models are now only 4-7 months behind frontier AI on hacking capabilities—down from 6-10 months at the start of 2025.
The British AI Security Institute warns that open-weight models like GLM-5.2 and DeepSeek V4-Pro now trail closed frontier models in cyber capabilities by four to seven months. At the start of 2025, the gap was still six to ten months. It also found that safety measures on open models are largely ineffective, leaving defenders less time to prepare.