Tariffs didn’t bring manufacturing jobs back to the US
Altana just acquired Cervo AI to automate customs declarations. Here's what that means for supply chains in a tariff-heavy world.
Why it matters
A supply chain software company is deploying agentic AI to handle the bureaucratic friction created by new trade policies. It's a case study in how AI tools are being built to solve problems that didn't exist 18 months ago—and whether that's progress or a sign we're running on a treadmill.
The key facts
20 to knowAltana acquired Cervo AI (announced same day as interview) to automate customs brokerage workflows
Altana is ~300 people, raised funding at scale to serve 8 of top 10 logistics providers + 9 governments
Data shows tariffs did NOT bring manufacturing jobs back to US; manufacturing output up but jobs down (automation explanation)
Chinese goods rerouted through Vietnam, Mexico, Malaysia post-tariffs at higher cost—same origin, different route
US Customs targeting systems have 0.5% hit rate; Altana building 'Product Passports' to replace random sampling with continuous monitoring
Token costs rising but not yet material to Altana's bottom line; company shifting from token-based to outcome-based pricing for agent work
Agentic AI enabling SOPs (standard operating procedures) to be codified and reused, but frontier model efficiency gains (Fable) show 'no real ROI' per co-founder
Section 338 tariffs on Canada may force renegotiation of USMCA around supply chain traceability
Strait of Hormuz disruptions show economic choke points being weaponized; helium supply shocks cascading through semiconductor value chains
Altana using federated/hub-and-spoke architecture to share supply chain insights without exposing customer data; pre-trained models lift learnings across network
Customs declarations currently priced at $20-$250 per entry; Altana exploring outcome-based pricing models instead of transactional
Altana grew from 240 to ~300 employees; operating with extended leadership team to handle 9 government relationships, 3 product lines, 8 of top 10 logistics providers
Agentic AI enables SOPs (standard operating procedures) learning: platform codifies customer-specific data pathologies and follows rules deterministically rather than burning tokens repeatedly
CEO Evan Smith reports token spend has not materially impacted bottom line; shipping velocity gains offset compute costs
Post-tariff data: Chinese goods rerouted through Vietnam, Mexico, Canada, Malaysia at higher cost (no actual reshoring); US manufacturing output increased but manufacturing jobs declined (automation explains gap)
US Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) initially declined post-tariffs, now trending above 50 (neutral) after 5-6 months
Drone autonomy case study: coordinated policy (import restrictions + $billions DoD 'Drone Dominance' program) creating domestic supply chain for components previously 90% China-controlled
De minimis exemption ended September 2025 (previously $800 threshold for duty-free imports); EU/UK followed suit
Altana platform used by UK government's Global Supply Chains Intelligence Program (10 agencies); federated data model keeps sensitive data on-premise while contributing to supply chain network graph
Strait of Hormuz disruption causing cascading effects through semiconductor/helium supply chains; company can model these dependencies numerically
Go to the source
The Verge Techtheverge.com
Publisher excerpt: Today, I’m talking with Evan Smith, who is cofounder and CEO of Altana, a company that develops software tools to manage big, messy supply chain networks around the world. We last had Evan on in early 2025 to talk about how Trump’s first few waves of tariffs were starting to affect global trade and…