Top AI experts badly underestimated how fast the field is moving, study finds
AI experts were off by 5 years on math olympiad, 5x on revenue. The field is moving faster than anyone predicted.
Why it matters
A Forecasting Research Institute study shows leading AI experts systematically underestimated capability progress (IMO gold medal, Anthropic revenue) but remain uncertain on real-world deployment timelines (autonomous vehicles). This matters because practitioner roadmaps and enterprise budgets are built on expert forecasts that have proven wildly conservative.
The key facts
9 to knowIMO gold-medal level AI achieved ~5 years ahead of median expert forecast
Anthropic annualized revenue ~5x higher than expert predictions
Real-world deployment forecasts (self-driving cars) show more mixed accuracy
Source: Forecasting Research Institute
Published: September 24, 2026
AI reached IMO gold-medal level 5 years ahead of median expert forecast
Anthropic's annualized revenue ~5x higher than expert predictions
Real-world deployment forecasts (self-driving cars) show mixed accuracy
Study by Forecasting Research Institute
Go to the source
The Decoderthe-decoder.com
Publisher excerpt: Leading AI experts have consistently underestimated how fast AI is advancing, according to the Forecasting Research Institute. AI reached gold-medal level at the International Mathematical Olympiad five years ahead of the median expert forecast, and Anthropic's annualized revenue is about five…