FrontierThe story, in brief
Top AI lab researchers warned about automated AI research, and several of their predicted milestones have already fallen
25 frontier researchers predicted recursive self-improvement milestones. Several have already hit.
The KeyNews take
Why it matters
AI labs' own researchers forecast automated model development timelines; the prediction track record matters for capability forecasting and safety planning in the race.
The key facts
5 to know25 researchers interviewed from OpenAI, Anthropic, Google DeepMind, Meta, and US universities
Topic: recursive self-improvement and automated AI research
Several predicted milestones have already been reached
Source: IAPS fellow Severin Field blog post
Published August 2026
Go to the source
The Decoderthe-decoder.com
Publisher excerpt: IAPS fellow Severin Field interviewed 25 researchers from OpenAI, Anthropic, Google Deepmind, Meta, and US universities about recursive self-improvement. In a new blog post, he takes stock. Several of the milestones those researchers named have already been hit.