MoneyThe story, in brief
What must happen for AI’s trillion-dollar gamble to pay off
Trillions spent. Zero consensus on ROI. A Wharton economist maps the scenarios where AI's biggest bet either pays off or implodes.
The KeyNews take
Why it matters
The AI infrastructure buildout is the largest capital commitment in tech history, but there's no agreement on which scenarios actually justify the spend. This analysis moves the ROI question from hype to hard economics.
The key facts
4 to knowJessica Wachter (Wharton) conducting formal economic impact assessment of AI infrastructure investment
Article frames AI capex as 'trillion-dollar gamble' with uncertain payoff timeline
Focus on business and technical uncertainties affecting investment thesis
Published September 2026 — part of ongoing capex-ROI debate in enterprise AI
Go to the source
MIT Technology Review AItechnologyreview.com
Publisher excerpt: When Jessica Wachter, a finance professor at the University of Pennsylvania’s Wharton School, wanted to assess AI’s impact on the economy over the next few years, she faced a long list of business and technical uncertainties. So she started with what she calls a “remarkable fact” that is not in…